As we enter the second half of 2025, Sonoma County’s housing market is clearly transitioning. After the rollercoaster of pandemic-era price spikes and low inventory, the market is finding a new rhythm. Supply is up, sales pace is down, and price growth has flattened, giving both buyers and sellers a more measured environment. For some, this means opportunity; for others, it’s time to reset expectations.
1. Sonoma County’s Housing Market 2025 Mid-Year Overview
Sonoma County’s real estate landscape has shifted noticeably since the start of the year. The current numbers reveal a slower, more buyer-friendly environment taking hold.
Key Market Indicators (as of June 2025):
- Median Sold Price: $950,000 (down 20.67% from 2024)
- Median Days on Market: 43 days
- Months of Inventory: 6.69 (up 6.63% from the previous month)
- Active Listings: 161 homes
Broader trends show a clear inventory surge, with listings jumping 55.7% year-over-year in Q1, climbing from 490 to 764 on average. By June, the county recorded 1,975 active listings, a 10.1% increase over May. Homes under $2 million drove much of that growth, with a 64.1% rise in listings, while those over $2 million rose 31.2%.
Despite this flood of new inventory, home prices have remained mostly stable. June’s median price of $806,900 represents a small 0.6% increase compared to last year. Prices varied by property type: 1-bedroom homes dipped slightly (–2.2%), while 2- and 3-bedroom homes rose modestly (1.1% and 1.5%), and larger 5+ bedroom homes saw a stronger 5.7% increase.
Wondering where to live between Sonoma and Healdsburg? Check out the key differences between them and which place is better for your needs and lifestyle here.
2. A Split Market: Sub-$2 Million vs. Luxury Homes
One of the most defining trends in 2025 is the growing divide between price segments. The sub-$2 million market continues to behave like a seller’s market, with a relatively strong 34% absorption rate and competitive buyer demand, especially for homes priced around the median.
In contrast, the luxury tier, homes priced above $2 million, has slowed significantly. The absorption rate here has dropped to just 8%, reflecting longer selling timelines, more inventory, and a shift toward buyer leverage. Luxury buyers now have the upper hand, with more room to negotiate and less pressure to rush.
The result is a bifurcated market where entry- and mid-level homes are still moving fairly quickly, while high-end properties linger and soften in price.
3. Sonoma County Migration and Relocation Trends
Even as the market slows, interest in Sonoma County remains high, especially from Bay Area professionals and retirees looking to relocate. The lifestyle appeal of Wine Country, along with a desire for more space and a quieter pace, continues to draw buyers north.
However, declining absorption rates suggest that many prospective buyers are taking a wait-and-see approach. Some are concerned about economic uncertainty, while others are struggling with affordability, even as prices stabilize. The local workforce, in particular, continues to face difficulty entering the market, squeezed by high home prices and interest rates.
Still, Sonoma’s long-term appeal, especially for those seeking second homes or lifestyle properties, ensures continued interest, even if immediate demand has cooled.
4. Primary Residents vs. Second-Home Buyers
The 2025 Sonoma County housing market also reflects the growing contrast between two buyer types: local primary residents and second-home or investor buyers.
Primary residents, especially younger buyers and working families, are dealing with affordability challenges, limited financing options, and rising monthly payments. Even with stabilizing prices, homeownership remains out of reach for many.
On the other hand, second-home buyers and investors are finding new openings in the luxury segment. With absorption rates low and listings rising, these buyers have more leverage than in recent years. Many are targeting homes with rental potential or long-term appreciation, betting on Sonoma’s continued desirability as a premium market.
This dynamic is creating two very different purchase journeys, one marked by urgency and constraint, the other by patience and opportunity. Check out the benefits of getting a second home in Sonoma here.
5. Looking Ahead: Second Half of 2025 Forecast for Sonoma County
The rest of 2025 is expected to bring continued rebalancing. While prices are likely to hold steady or show only minor shifts, the real story will be increased buyer choice and a slower sales pace across the board.
- The luxury market will remain in the buyer’s territory, with longer DOM, price flexibility, and growing inventory.
- Homes under $1.5M will continue to see demand, though without the urgency or bidding wars of previous years.
- Interest rates and affordability will keep sidelining some buyers, particularly first-timers.
- Inventory may continue to rise slowly, depending on seller confidence and seasonal shifts.
Importantly, the drop in absorption rates reflects not just less urgency, but also greater deliberation. Buyers are taking their time, doing their research, and waiting for the right fit, especially in a market where options are expanding.
Even so, Sonoma County’s underlying demand remains strong, driven by long-term factors like the region’s housing shortage, population growth, and enduring lifestyle appeal. The key challenges ahead lie in improving affordability, encouraging smart development, and creating more diverse housing stock that meets the needs of both full-time residents and lifestyle buyers.
Conclusion
The 2025 Sonoma County housing market has shifted into a more measured, thoughtful phase. Inventory is up, competition is down, and buyers, especially in the luxury tier, are finally getting the upper hand. For sellers, this means adjusting expectations and pricing more strategically. For buyers, it’s a rare window of opportunity in a market that rarely slows down for long.
Why choose Sonoma Realtor Emily Martin?
Emily has called California home for over a decade and likes to think of herself as a California “native.” Learning at a young age from her mother, Linda K. Martin, a top-producing real estate agent for 40+ years, Emily has been immersed in real estate all of her life. As a homeowner in her early 20s in Manhattan’s Gramercy Park, followed by San Francisco, and now Healdsburg, Emily understands the intricacies of home ownership in highly sought-after regions such as Manhattan, San Francisco, Sonoma County, Napa Valley, and her beloved hometown of Healdsburg, California.
Whether clients are buying their dream home, purchasing a second home, selling a cherished property, or investing in the market, Emily is here to make their dreams a reality. Her extensive luxury experience, attention to customer service, marketing expertise, strong work ethic, and passion enable her to provide a level of service that is truly distinctive.
As the journey begins, here’s what clients can expect:
Unmatched Luxury Expertise
With a deep-rooted understanding of the luxury market, Emily brings a wealth of knowledge and insight into luxury goods, sales, and lifestyle. Whether clients are buying or selling, she has the expertise to navigate the world of real estate and the Healdsburg Luxury Homes market.
A Tradition of Excellence
With a family legacy spanning four decades in real estate, excellence is not just a goal—it’s a tradition. Emily is committed to upholding the impeccable reputation her mother, Linda K. Martin, a top North Shore Chicago agent, has built by delivering nothing short of excellence to her clients.
Unwavering Dedication & Passion
Emily is dedicated to her clients’ success. From the moment they embark on this journey together, she provides unwavering support, guidance, and attention to detail, ensuring a seamless and stress-free experience. When asked to describe Emily, the first words that come to her clients ‘ minds are passionate, energetic, experienced, and dependable.
Explore the Luxury Lifestyle in Healdsburg’s Wine Country
Luxury real estate is not just about properties—it’s about a lifestyle. It’s about finding the perfect blend of elegance, sophistication, and comfort that feels like home. It’s the feeling clients get when they walk into their dream home.
Contact Sonoma Realtor Emily Martin today at: [email protected] or 707-926-3200 to begin an extraordinary real estate experience. Together, you’ll create a story worth telling, a life worth living, and a legacy worth building.